Population Dynamics in Dabat Health and Demographic Surveillance System Sites, Dabat District, Northwest Ethiopia: A Four-year Surveillance Report (2009 To 2012)

Abstract

Introduction: The Dabat Health and Demographic Surveillance System was launched by the then Gondar College of Medical Sciences in 1996. The main reasons for establishing the surveillance system were to produce demographic and health related evidence in Dabat district and build capacity of the college staff in managing surveillance systems including managing and analyzing longitudinal data. The objective of this report is to describe the population dynamics in Dabat Health and Demographic Surveillance System sites.

Methods: A population based surveillance system has continued in Dabat District after conducting re-census in February 2008. Data has been collected by trained data collectors every 6 months. This report includes the analysis of the follow up data from January 01, 2009 to December 31, 2012. Mid-year population counts were reported on June 30 of each year.  Data was initially entered using software developed for the DRC purpose and was later migrated to HRS2. STATA was used for data analysis.

Results: The population counts were 45369 in 2009, 45815 in 2010, 46178 in 2011, and 47253 in 2012. The Crude Birth Rate (CBR) ranged from 25.2 in 2011 to 30.0 births/1000 population in 2009. Similarly, Total Fertility Rate (TFR) ranged from 3.6 in 2011 to 4.4 in 2009. The Crude Death Rates (CDRs) were 7.6 in 2009, 7.8 in 2010, 5.3 in 2011, and 6.6 per 1000 population in 2012. Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) decreased from 74.2 in 2009 to 60.0 per 1000 live births in 2012. In the same manner, Under-five Mortality Rate (U5MR) decreased from 92.5 in 2009 to 75.8 per 1000 live births in 2012.The net-migration rates were negative in all the surveillance years. Migration rates were high among females in the age group of 20-29 years. The rates of natural increase were 2.2 in 2009 and 201; 2.0 in 2011, and 2.3 per 1000 population in 2012.

Conclusion: While the decreases in fertility rates were not remarkable there were substantial reductions in childhood mortality rates. The net external migration rates were negative over the entire surveillance period. The District Health Office and the health institutions in the area with other stakeholders need to maximize their curative, preventive, and promotive health services to significantly reduce the fertility and mortality rates. Further detailed research on reasons for migration, especially out-migration, is also recommended.